Welcome back! After many tries at the 25,000$ challenge, I had to rethink my strategy and decided it was probably best if I started with a 10,000$ funded account challenge then use the profit to gradually level up to 25,000$, 50,000$, 100,000$ and so on.
Market this week was definitely choppy with all the talks about rate hikes and of course USD filled with events such as Non-Farm Payroll and such.
As you can see, tremendous market manipulation and traps which I myself got caught in those traps. You can see my first 2 trades as a loss where I had to close before I reached my daily loss limit of 500$. Eventually waited until stop hunt was reached and slowly turned into sell mode. Closed my sell trades at around 32000 which netted me around 1000$, so overall we took the account from 9600$ to 10,500$.
With the challenge now halfway done, profit target 11,000$, next week will be very important to wait for perfect setup or trade “in the moment” with carefully planned lot size and risk position. My game plan is to wait for a sell setup with a 1:2 risk reward where I’ll be risking 250$ for 500$ gain and bring the account to the 11,000$ profit target required to move on to Phase 2 Verification.
Phase 2 verification will then require to start over from 10,000$ with the profit target of 500$, so 10,500$ but this time, all this can be done in 2 months, 60 days while Phase 1 was 1,000$ profit target in 30 days. Just by looking at the numbers, you can already tell Phase 2 is much more reasonable/attainable than Phase 1 where you are almost forced to over-leverage in order to meet the 10% profit in such a short time.
As for the next 500$ to make on Phase 1, I am not sure if I will keep trading US30 or move on to more traditional pairs where volatility might be less of an issue, considering all the fluctuations that is happening surrounding the USD lately. Looking at the charts, I have possibly found a very good Sell setup on GBPCHF, see below:
Looking at GBPCHF H4 chart, seems like we hit the top and price is now reversing. Looking at the 15min chart and H1, it seems price is in stoploss hunting mode, maybe pullback a bit higher to last high on 15min and I am expecting the price to drop and reach the 1.105 level, for 60:420 or 1:7 risk:reward ratio as seen below:
Another setup which looks very interesting is USDJPY H4 where the double top pattern seems more obvious:
With these levels, we would be looking at 80 pips risk and 200 pips reward so roughly 1:2.5 ratio. Now the challenge is to determine which pair would be more likely to crash and hit our target, GBPCHF, USDJPY or US30?
From a fundamental point of view, Bank of England (BoE) is expecting GBP to weakened even more and at least till end of 2022. USD is definitely in trouble for same reason as BoE but maybe in a stronger position than GBP. JPY on the other side, is also very weak just by looking at the H4 chart where USDJPY kept rising and rising and rising until the Bank of Japan (BoJ) actually had to intervene last month, something which hasn’t been done since 1998 in order to control Yen’s price value. Swiss Franc is most likely the strongest of them all, while being generally considered as a go-to asset when there is too much volatility in the market. Yen was also considered as a safe asset as of late 2021. However, 2022 hasn’t been good at all for the Yen, hence the BoJ intervention.
From a technical and fundamental perspective, GBPCHF makes more sense to me as a Sell setup but who knows, maybe I will find another setup over the weekend and split the risk in 2 trades instead of 1 in order to get the 500$ profit left in order to pass Phase 1 of the 10,000$ challenge.
To be continued…